Bigwig
This thread is for all things about the beautiful game.  It looks like we may be here awhile/forever.
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kgaard
You son of a bitch.
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Bigwig
kgaard wrote:
You son of a bitch.


Hahaha.  After this and the Spurs joke from the other day I suppose you're about to declare war.
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kgaard
Bigwig wrote:
kgaard wrote:
You son of a bitch.


Hahaha.  After this and the Spurs joke from the other day I suppose you're about to declare war.


I have Little Irish on retainer.
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Bigwig
MLS gets dismantled in friendlies last night 18-5 combined.

Unfortunately, this just gave sports talk heads more opportunity to say stuff about the sport that is horrifyingly ignorant.
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Moses

Bigwig wrote:
MLS gets dismantled in friendlies last night 18-5 combined.

Unfortunately, this just gave sports talk heads more opportunity to say stuff about the sport that is horrifyingly ignorant.


It was weird seeing Aston Villa win.  But, I can't say the play was great.  Lots of crowd energy, and there were a lot more Villa fans than I would have guessed.

I had not been to a professional soccer match since the Tulsa Roughnecks played in the NASL.  That was more than 30 years ago.


Next time I am bringing sunscreen. 

 

 

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Flax
I haven't looked at all of them, but given that this was the middle of the MLS season, I wonder how many teams were actually starting close to their first-team squads.  I know for a fact that Sporting Kansas City played mostly a B team against Man City - now, Man City were also playing more of a B team, but then you have to consider that a Premier League B team is likely to be stronger than an MLS team; City probably don't have a senior bench player who wouldn't start for every single MLS team.  So the fact that City's B team was 4-1 better than SKC's B team shouldn't be a big shock to anyone.  Don't know about the other friendlies though.
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Infinitus Corsair
Bigwig, listen to this.

I created a hypothetical soccer confederation merging CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and then did a simulated continental championship including qualifying.  I simulated results based on current elo ratings.  I estimated the likelihood of a draw on an arbitrary, eye-test basis, but I think it works pretty well.

So.  I used elo rankings throughout to seed teams.  I did a preliminary group stage to weed out 11 minnows (there are 51 teams in the Americas and I wanted 40 in the main qualifying round).  That gave me 5 groups of 4 or 5 (two of 5) with the top two advancing, plus the best 3rd-place team (dropping results against the 5th-placed teams).  The results were pretty chalk - 4 of the 5 teams from Pot 1 won their groups; the other winner was from Pot 2.  The only team from Pot 2 not to advance was Sint Maarten, which tied with Aruba in Group 1 on 12 points but which lost out on goal differential (which was decided with a coin flip, because I didn't simulate scores at this point, only results).

In the main qualifying round, I went with 8 groups of 5, the top two qualifying for the finals.  Pot 1 was Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and the US.  This round was pure chalk - every team from Pots 1 and 2 advanced.  The only Pot 1 teams that didn't win their groups were Uruguay (finished on 19 points behind Honduras's 21) and the US (lost out to Peru, 18 points to 17).  There were some upsets, but they happened lower in the tables (like Haiti finishing last behind St. Kitts and St. Lucia).  Argentina took 24 points from 8 games.

That left 16 teams in the finals.  I decided to divide up the pots by putting the 4 best-performing group winners in Pot 1, the rest in Pot 2, and repeating for the runners-up.  After all of that chalk in the qualifying rounds, there were finally some interesting results.

Despite slipping into Pot 3, Uruguay got a sweetheart draw in Group A with Honduras, Costa Rica, and Bolivia.  Uruguay won with 7 points; Costa Rica went through with 4.  Colombia won Group B despite a shock 3-0 loss in their opening game to Panama.  Panama held on to finish second with 4 points, beating out Ecuador on goal difference; Peru finished last.  Although I'd begun simulating scores, I realized during this group that I should have fine-tuned that mechanism better - 24 goals were scored in Ecuador's 3 games (a 1-1 draw with Peru, a 6-7 barnburner with Colombia, and a 5-4 win over Panama).

In Group C, Argentina also lost their opener, 2-0 to Venezuela, but beat the US and Mexico to win the group on goal difference over Venezuela.  The US picked up just 1 point (a 1-1 draw with Mexico) and were outscored 5-11 (including a 4-7 slobberknocker with Argentina).  Paraguay won Group D on goal difference, also after an opening loss (0-1 to Chile).  Chile and Brazil also had 6 points (Jamaica was the whipping boy) but were only +1 in goals to Paraguay's +3.  But Chile had two 1-0 wins and Brazil scored 8 goals, so Brazil went through on goals for (they also beat Chile 1-0, but I wasn't using head-to-head).

So the quarterfinals were Uruguay-Panama, Argentina-Brazil, Colombia-Costa Rica, Paraguay-Venezuela.  Argentina beat Brazil 3-2 but the other three went to shootouts, with Uruguay (2-2, 5-3), Costa Rica (1-1, 6-5), and Paraguay (2-2, 4-2) advancing.  In the semis, Uruguay beat Argentina 4-3 and Costa Rica beat Paraguay 2-0.  Uruguay won the final 1-0.  This is a pretty decent upset as Uruguay was ranked only 6th in the tournament in elo.  Three of the top 8 elo teams (Chile, Mexico, and the US) missed out on the quarters, and the teams in the semis were ranked 1st (Argentina), 6th (Uruguay), 7th (Costa Rice), and 10th (Paraguay).

I'm pleased with how I spent my day.
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kgaard
Interesting. I spent my day watching NY Red Bulls uphold the honor of MLS as the only team to defeat an EPL visitor and maintaining their perfect record against whoever it was they played, I don't remember.
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Bigwig
Infinitus Corsair wrote:
Bigwig, listen to this.

I created a hypothetical soccer confederation merging CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and then did a simulated continental championship including qualifying. .


Awesome nerd stuff.  I like the format very much.

I'm going to go check how qualifying for the 2016 Copa America in the USA is going to work.  brb
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Bigwig
Okay, the ten SA teams + USA and Mexico are autoqualified.  Then the winners of the Caribbean Cup and Central American Cup.  Then a four team playoff for the top four finishers in the 2015 Gold Cup not already qualified.

Obviously inferior to your setup, but whatever the case, I'd love to see a quadrennial comptetition between both continents.  
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Infinitus Corsair
kgaard wrote:
Interesting. I spent my day watching NY Red Bulls uphold the honor of MLS as the only team to defeat an EPL visitor and maintaining their perfect record against whoever it was they played, I don't remember.


So you spent the day in New Jersey?  That's about a 1-0 win for me.
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Infinitus Corsair
Bigwig wrote:
Okay, the ten SA teams + USA and Mexico are autoqualified.  Then the winners of the Caribbean Cup and Central American Cup.  Then a four team playoff for the top four finishers in the 2015 Gold Cup not already qualified.

Obviously inferior to your setup, but whatever the case, I'd love to see a quadrennial comptetition between both continents.  


Yeah, I wanted to do something more like Europe.  It's extremely likely that the 10 automatic qualifiers for '16 would get there in a competitive format, though, so I guess it could be worse.
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Bigwig
Infinitus Corsair wrote:
Bigwig wrote:
Okay, the ten SA teams + USA and Mexico are autoqualified.  Then the winners of the Caribbean Cup and Central American Cup.  Then a four team playoff for the top four finishers in the 2015 Gold Cup not already qualified.

Obviously inferior to your setup, but whatever the case, I'd love to see a quadrennial comptetition between both continents.  


Yeah, I wanted to do something more like Europe.  It's extremely likely that the 10 automatic qualifiers for '16 would get there in a competitive format, though, so I guess it could be worse.


Venezuela is often the wild card.  The only nation of those ten whose primary sport isn't football (baseball, of course).

But it's hard to shut out any of them when they all automatically qualify for every Copa America.  There would be hell to pay.
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kgaard
Infinitus Corsair wrote:
kgaard wrote:
Interesting. I spent my day watching NY Red Bulls uphold the honor of MLS as the only team to defeat an EPL visitor and maintaining their perfect record against whoever it was they played, I don't remember.


So you spent the day in New Jersey?  That's about a 1-0 win for me.


I have a television, my friend.
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Moses

Evil Kagawa

[BuD9M4CIUAEzkVi] 

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Flax
That's as close to a win as a 2-1 loss gets.
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Nobby
Really thrilling end to a football match I've ever seen.

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Flax
IC, explain yourself.
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Moses
Just want to point out that at halftime, Gabby Agbonlahor is 18 inches from a hat trick.  The fuck is happening?
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Moses
I love you guys.
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kgaard
Is this the best day of Moses's life?

Yes.
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Moses

kgaard wrote:
Is this the best day of Moses's life?

Yes.


Eh, Aston Villa has survived relegation recently in later matches during the season.  And, Villa is still against the wall.  

 

But, yes, a win against WBA makes it sweeter.

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Moses
Guys, buy me drinks and feel me up.
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Moses
I think it is safe to say there's a new sheriff in town.  Sure, the sheriff is a Slim Pickens type, but still a new sheriff.
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kgaard
Is this the best day of Moses's life?

Yes.
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blakula
Damn, I think I may hang out here.
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Flax
Moses wrote:
I think it is safe to say there's a new sheriff in town.  Sure, the sheriff is a Slim Pickens type, but still a new sheriff.


Two wins over WEST BROM?  Watch out, Champions League!
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Moses
Flax wrote:
Moses wrote:
I think it is safe to say there's a new sheriff in town.  Sure, the sheriff is a Slim Pickens type, but still a new sheriff.


Two wins over WEST BROM?  Watch out, Champions League!


(I'm speaking about the Birmingham area.)
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Flax
The downside to Chelsea getting dumped out of the Champions League is that they can focus on the league completely now.  It was already pretty unlikely that City would be able to haul them down but this pretty much cinches it.
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kgaard
On the upside, fuck Chelsea.
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Moses
Does briggm know about Kate's Place?  If so, well done, briggm.
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Moses
Holy shit.  Villa should be fine now.
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Infinitus Corsair
Flax wrote:
IC, explain yourself.


What Arsenal do every year now is blow the away fixture in the R16 at home, then win the away game but not by enough to win the tie, then ride the "momentum" into the last stretch of the season, securing UCL football for the next season and winning the FA Cup.  Then they sign one really big player in the summer and everyone goes into the next season saying, "man, they were actually competitive with Bayern/Monaco/whatever, won the FA Cup, and looked great in the spring, this could be the year they put it together!"

So you've all got that to look forward to.
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kgaard
Flax, explain yourself.
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Infinitus Corsair
Second-place is a trophy?
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Flax
kgaard wrote:
Flax, explain yourself.


I don't know what it is with this team's finishing this year.  I doubt I could stay on one hand counting the games that they dominated in terms of possession, but couldn't put anything in while allowing the opponent to capitalize on nearly all of their minimal chances.  Inside of 30 yards they've just been lousy, often seeming like they're trying to dribble into the goal or just making one pass too many.  It's like they did a Freaky Friday switch with Arsenal.
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Flax
Southampton hand City yet another slender lifeline.  Of course, right now I'm more worried about dropping out of the automatic CL places than I am about winning the title.  If United beat Spurs today City will only be two clear of fourth, and if Liverpool then beat Swansea tomorrow City will only be four points clear of the Europa League places.  The nine-game run-in features plenty of games that SHOULD be easy wins, but City also still have to go to Old Trafford and White Hart Lane, and if those teams are snapping at City's heels those matches will be even more pressure-packed than they already would be.  Those aren't grounds where City have struggled to win over the last few seasons but still.  This is looking way too much like the lackluster title defense of 2013.  City are like the San Francisco Giants of the Premier League.
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kgaard
Me, explain myself.
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kgaard
kgaard wrote:
Me, explain myself.


Typical Spurs.
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Moses
If Man City would just do their fucking jobs, Aston Villa would be 6 points clear.  Take a goddamned lap, Flax. 
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briggm
You'll be ok now, Moses.

We were linked with Sherwood both times we hired this season, and I was glad we didn't get him. I don't think he would have suited our squad at all. But Villa have some real quality in the team and I think everybody apart from Lambert could see that it was time to take the shackles off. 
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wirthling
I have been experimenting with watching spanish-language futbol broadcasts.

pelota = ball
"I am very poorly today and very stupid and hate everybody and everything." - Charles Darwin
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Flax
wirthling wrote:
I have been experimenting with watching spanish-language futbol broadcasts.

pelota = ball


gol = goal
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wirthling
*high five*
"I am very poorly today and very stupid and hate everybody and everything." - Charles Darwin
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Infinitus Corsair
Flax wrote:
Southampton hand City yet another slender lifeline.  Of course, right now I'm more worried about dropping out of the automatic CL places than I am about winning the title.  If United beat Spurs today City will only be two clear of fourth, and if Liverpool then beat Swansea tomorrow City will only be four points clear of the Europa League places.  The nine-game run-in features plenty of games that SHOULD be easy wins, but City also still have to go to Old Trafford and White Hart Lane, and if those teams are snapping at City's heels those matches will be even more pressure-packed than they already would be.  Those aren't grounds where City have struggled to win over the last few seasons but still.  This is looking way too much like the lackluster title defense of 2013.  City are like the San Francisco Giants of the Premier League.


I'm sorry, I can't hear this over the sound of me wearing my orange Madison Bumgarner jersey.
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briggm
Flax wrote:
wirthling wrote:
I have been experimenting with watching spanish-language futbol broadcasts.

pelota = ball


gol = goal


Actually, in Spanish language football broadcasts, gooooooooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllllllllllll = goal.
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briggm
Good luck tonight IC.
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Flax
Infinitus Corsair wrote:
Flax wrote:
IC, explain yourself.


What Arsenal do every year now is blow the away fixture in the R16 at home, then win the away game but not by enough to win the tie, then ride the "momentum" into the last stretch of the season, securing UCL football for the next season and winning the FA Cup.  Then they sign one really big player in the summer and everyone goes into the next season saying, "man, they were actually competitive with Bayern/Monaco/whatever, won the FA Cup, and looked great in the spring, this could be the year they put it together!"

So you've all got that to look forward to.


Welp, 2-for-2 so far.
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Infinitus Corsair
Really looking forward to beating Aston Villa in the FA Cup final.
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